Establish a theory of change

Inherent to sport and development programmes is the desire to achieve positive change in the lives of individuals or groups in society. A theory of change (ToC) can help in making sure that you have a clear plan on how to effect social change.

“First, have a definite, clear practical ideal: a goal, an objective. Second, have the necessary means to achieve your ends: wisdom, money, materials, and methods. Third, adjust all your means to that end.” Aristotle

Social development projects are inspired by the best of intentions and many practitioners and stakeholders are no longer satisfied with small scale results, but want to see global change. Yet, how can we ensure programmes will achieve real social change and how can we know when that change has occurred?

What is ToC?
A theory of change can be understood as a development hypothesis, which requires a comprehensive situational analysis and should identify a connection between a project’s activities and the envisioned outcomes/change.

The concept has developed in response to calls from stakeholders for the clearer articulation of the assumptions inspiring development programmes and of how objectives would be achieved.

Carol Weiss (1995) played a significant role in conceptualising the theory and identified the need to realign focus towards the results of the development programme rather than on the activity as well as the need to identify the “mini-steps” that are essential for achieving the bigger, long-term changes envisioned.

What is it for?
A ToC is useful to guide programme planning and implementation, ensuring that the steps taken focus on the end result.

A ToC can be particularly useful for the monitoring and evaluation of a project – as a criteria from which to evaluate the effectiveness of the project. Has the programme followed the course that was intended? Have the change indicators that were expected been achieved? Which external influences affected the outlined ToC? Has the intended change taken place to benefit the lives of beneficiaries?

A theory of change can be valuable if it is engaged with seriously, but it may also simply offer a descriptive purpose. Establishing a ToC ensures that clear articulation of the project’s intentions can be communicated effectively, internally and externally.

In some cases practitioners may outline a ToC solely for the purpose of meeting funders’ demands on paper, yet this undermines the point and purpose of having a ToC which should outline a realistic path to facilitating genuine intended change.

How can it benefit S&D?
Acknowledging that a core reason for establishing a ToC is to refocus efforts on the objectives rather than the activities – and with S&D programmes being activity focussed in nature – the ToC can help to re-establish the connection between the sport and the development goals and thereby increase the value and impact that S&D projects have in societies across the globe.

If the S&D sector can prove its methodologies as effective components within a theory of change, leading to successful and significant social change in the areas where it is needed most, this can only heighten the respect and recognition of sport as a tool for development. In addition, tried and tested ToCs can be further replicated or developed by other organisations within the S&D sector.

Establishing a culture of prioritising some theoretical reflection prior to the practical implementation of projects could drive more projects to succeed in achieving the changes they desire. Not all organisations have the capacity to undertake such a task, but perhaps taking more time to think about the path to change would see more projects reaching their destination; since what is development if it does not change things?